Pork Report Announces PA House Races to Watch
The Pork Report has announced its 6 “Races to Watch” in Southeast PA
1. Dwayne Royster (D) vs. Jay Moyer (R)- [70] Toss Up
Moyer’s narrow 103 vote victory in ‘06 may be overturned in this increasingly African American district. If Obama is the Dem candidate and can drag out the likely strait ticket Dem voters, this could be an easy W for Royster.
2. Brendan Boyle (D) vs. Matt Taubenberger (R)-[170] Toss Up
Though this house seat was abandoned by GOP Rep. George Kenney, the district has been trending Democratic in recent years. Branded the “loser’s ball” by many Northeast Philly politicos, the race features a two-time loser in Brendan Boyle vs. the son of 2007 Mayoral contest loser, Al Taubenberger. If the election was held today, Taubenberger should win, and Boyle needs to show he’s more than a perennial loser.
3. Frank Farry (R) vs. Chris King (D) [142] Favors King
Although Former Congressman Mke Fitzpatrick flirted with running for this lower office and then backed away, the 142nd could still be a battle ground in an area of Bucks Co that could see a strong performance from the local GOP. Nonetheless, what was a 5-point race for King last time should definitely tighten up.
4. John DeFransisco (D) vs. Nick Miccarelli (R) [162] – Favors Miccarelli
In an ironic twist of typical suburban Philly races, this contest features “Old-School” Union Dem Johnny-D vs. “New School” Iraq Veteran, Nick Miccarelli. Though this seat, formerly held by Ron Raymond, may look cozy for his COS, Miccaerlli, DeFransesco could pull off a major upset if he is able to channel the Congressman Sestak-built machine in Delco. Still, Miccarelli appears to be the “Dream Candidate” for the rapidly declining Delco GOP
4. Thomas Murt (R) vs. Lisa Romaniello (D)- [152] Favors Murt
This race has upset written all over it. If Upper Moreland’s Romaniello can put together the ground campaign needed, Murt could easily be pushed out of this Democratic trending district.
5. Carol Palmaccio (D) vs. Duane Milne (R) [167] Strongly Favors Milne
Another race that was a squeaker in ’06, though its debatable if Anne Crowley ran the race needed to win. Now Milne is a few years smarter, but has been quiet around the district. A strong campaign from Palmaccio could be the answer,
6. Shannon Royer (R) vs. Barb McIlvaine Smith (D) [156]- Strongly Favors Smith
It was the most watched lower house race in the country for a few weeks in ’06 as control of the entire House rested on a handful of votes in the 156th. Most folks feel Barb has provided the constituent services needed to hang on to this volatile seat.
One of the strategies looked at the PFC meet-up where PAM was unveiled was state races where PFC field efforts could do double duty, i.e. winnable state races that were also areas where Clinton did well (assuming an Obama nomination) so that canvassing efforts to shore up a high Dem turnout for Philly in the general to put our state in the D column could also help put a closely contested state race over the top. If you had come out you would know Brendan Boyle’s race was specifically discussed. Your input about other races would have been welcome as well.
Just sayin’.
seand
May 22, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Porker obviously doesn’t understand the dynamic of Northeast politics we have here. Local pols like Kenney, Perzel, O’Brien, Taylor and City COuncilman Brian O’Neill stay getting reelected by big majorities (with the exception of Kenney who did not get a big majority last time) because they are literally all over their districts with responsive constituent service and have been for atleast two decades and in a few cases three decades.
Saying Boyle is a perennial loser is ridiculous. If you knew anyone from Somerton you’d know he ran a extraordinary campaign against an extremely entrenched incumbent. The proof is in the numbers. Before Boyle ran Kenney was winning by 35% to 40% in literally every reelection attempt but one. Boyle’s last attempt in 06 got within single digits of Kenney. This was majorly impressive to everyone here. Why do you think Boyle ran uncontested in the primary even though it was an open seat?
By the way, Taubenberger has no shot. There was a poll I just saw done by a national polling firm that has Boyle ahead 54% to 30%. I know Boyle is a worker so he won’t rest on his big lead.
Kevin
May 24, 2008 at 1:49 am
I was told the last poll you did had you guys up by 28 pts. This one has you up by 24pts. 4pt gain in a month with 5 months to go.
This is going to be a great race!
ed
May 30, 2008 at 8:59 pm
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